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Lewis JonesA tired Tottenham will falter at Bournemouth and Graham Potter’s Chelsea will struggle at Brighton, says tipster Jones Knows, who attacks the weekend card fresh from a 6/1 best bet winner last week.
Leicester vs Manchester City, Saturday 12.30pm
Leicester have the attacking weapons to make this a potentially dangerous game for Manchester City but City are just City, so the outright prices look about right to me with City trading at 1/4 with Sky Bet.
There is a bet to consider in the cards market. Wout Faes – a shrewd £15m summer signing from Reims – has made a huge difference for Leicester as he actually seems to relish defending, something his teammates haven’t shown a desire for in 2022. The Foxes have kept four clean sheets in their last five fixtures with Faes leading the way in terms of his authority and aggressive defending. It’s that forceful nature along with Brendan Rodgers’ style of asking his defenders to push up where possible that makes him stand out as a potential card play.
He picked up 14 yellows and two reds from the start of the 20/21 season with Reims and he broke the seal on yellows for Leicester when picking up his first at Wolves. Many more are likely to follow but Sky Bet are wise to that fact with just 5/2 available on him picking up a card yet the 17/2 on him being the first player carded in a game that should average a low card count is worth a look.
SCORE PREDICTION: 0-2
This a red-flag game for Spurs. It takes a big effort to win away against any team in the Premier League even one as limited as Bournemouth. I was toying with the idea of taking the Cherries on the double chance, effectively laying Tottenham at 4/6 with Sky Bet, but despite clear improvements under Gary O’Neil, their attacking metrics are still the worst in the league.
They’ve had the fewest shots (91), fewest touches in the opposition box (178) and racked up the lowest expected goals tally (7.3) in the Premier League. Plus, Dominic Solanke is a doubt for this one having limped off at West Ham.
Everything points to a low-scoring affair where the prices are juicy enough to attack. The 0-0 at 11/1 with Sky Bet makes sense but it’s not a bet for everyone so I’ve come down on ‘no’ in the both teams to score market at 10/11. It means we’ve got lots of correct scores in our favour.
Brentford vs Wolves, Saturday 3pm
A very basic but profitable theory to use in football betting is to back a team to play with much more focus on defending in the immediate match after taking a bit of a hiding. That way of thinking usually rides against the market expectation of the team in question continuing to leak goals at an alarming rate. Here we have quite a unique situation of a game involving two teams that have just conceded four goals apiece in their last outing. Using the aforementioned theory, it’s predicted that both Brentford and Wolves are likely to adopt no-thrills defensive tactics in order to try and grab a clean sheet.
Brentford are the kings of bouncing back from a heavy defeat and grabbing a clean sheet in their next match. On the last four occasions they’ve been beaten by four or more goals, the very next game has seen the Brentford defence keep a clean sheet. Meanwhile, Wolves are completely comfortable playing a defensive-focused game having done so since the start of last season. In their last 50 matches, the average goals per-90 ratio in their matches comes in at 2.02 – that’s the lowest of all Premier League teams for that period.