Trump may be in hot water after he announced penalties on Russia’s two largest oil companies, if energy prices spike or coalition solidarity breaks down.
The new US penalties represent a blow to Moscow’s military economy, not a pat on the wrist.
The two companies that are driving Russia’s military economy are the oil behemoths Lukoil and Rosneft.
Russia depends heavily on oil, and the Trump Treasury just stopped the supply.
However, there is a chance of collateral damage and the possibility of self-harm with every blow delivered in the ring.
The president is tightening the global market’s chest by squeezing Russia’s oil industry, and America’s own pump may feel the strain.
The White House is wagering that the domestic pain will eventually be outweighed by the geopolitical reward.
“These are tremendous sanctions and I hope they don’t last long,” Trump stated.
His strategy was summed up in that combination of arrogance and caution: maximal pressure while keeping an eye on domestic prices.
Europe quickly followed Washington’s lead, narrowing shipping loopholes and imposing import restrictions.
The EU was making it quite evident that the Western alliance supports Trump.
They are aware that Moscow will take advantage of any division and evade detection on both sides of the Atlantic.
The diplomatic stagecraft came from a meeting with NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte in the Oval Office.
Mr. Trump reiterated that he “didn’t want to have a wasted journey” by calling off a scheduled summit with Vladimir Putin.
By calling the US president “the only one who can get this done” twice, Mr. Rutte portrayed himself as a devoted supporter.
My assertion that Trump’s meeting with Zelensky last Friday had been a fiasco was downplayed by Mr. Rutte earlier.
This is not the first time that Mr. Rutte, who is known for calling Mr. Trump “Daddy,” has thrown salt on the fire.
Nevertheless, plans for another summit with Putin have been put on hold because of Moscow’s seeming inability to accept Trump’s requirements.
China may have some negotiating power when Mr. Trump meets with Xi Jinping for trade negotiations next week thanks to its diplomatic ties with Russia.
More than just a punishment, the US president’s sanctions are a calculated risk to corner Putin, but there is very little room for error.
Mr. Trump may be in danger if oil prices rise or allied solidarity breaks down.