The Monaco GP has a history of surprising drivers and seems to be Red Bull’s hardest test yet; watch the Monaco GP all live on Sky Sports F1, with Saturday qualifying at 3pm and Sunday’s race at 2pm.
Red Bull have won every race of the 2023 Formula 1 season, but this weekend’s Monaco Grand Prix is set to provide their rivals a major opportunity to end the RB19’s domination.
World championship leader Max Verstappen and team-mate Sergio Perez have shared five victories between them, but the Circuit de Monaco is an outlier on the F1 calendar, given the unique slow-speed nature of the track.
The average speed is so low that an exception is made for the 305km minimum distance for a race, as Monaco is just 260km (77 laps).Every team will design a car which they believe will be able to perform consistently at most of the 23 tracks on the calendar visit, but there is no other circuit like Monaco.
During Ferrari’s dominant years in the early 2000s and the Mercedes reign throughout much of the turbo-hybrid era, Monaco was where their rivals could pounce.
This year is no different, so are Red Bull set to come under serious pressure for the first time in 2023?
Ferrari favourites for Monaco?
Charles Leclerc has a dismal record at his home event after failing to finish the race in 2018, 2019 and 2021.
Last year, he started on pole position and led the first part of the wet race before a strategy blunder saw him drop to fourth behind Perez, team-mate Carlos Sainz and Verstappen.
Leclerc is arguably the best driver over one lap in F1 with an incredible ability to take his car to the absolute limit, although sometimes too far.
The only non-Red Bull pole this year was delivered by Leclerc in Baku, with the twisty 90-degree corners being where he was faster than Verstappen, showing the Ferrari has great mechanical grip and good traction.
He was 0.144s quicker than Verstappen in Sector 2 at the Baku City Circuit and in Miami the trend continued when analysing the mini sectors, as Ferrari were the benchmark in the slow turns, before losing ground everywhere else.
A trait of the Ferrari power unit is it tends to accelerate slightly faster than the Honda engine in the back of the Red Bull, so that should also help around Monaco.
“I like city tracks in general,” Leclerc has said previously. “Baku, Singapore, Monaco – they are tracks I really enjoy. You can really play with the limit compared to a normal track.
“The limit is a hard limit, as it’s the wall, so you cannot overstep it and it’s a game about building up to be close to the wall without touching it.”
Red Bull are beatable over one lap
Verstappen admits the field are closer in qualifying trim and Sky Sports F1’s Ted Kravitz believes the time it takes the RB19 to get its tyres up to ideal temperature is one of the car’s few weaknesses.
Whereas at most tracks they have plenty of opportunity to take advantage of their greater race pace, at Monaco missing out on pole can be decisive.
“That resistance to front dive makes it harder for Verstappen and Perez holding the steering wheel to feel the load across the front axel during braking. That leads to locked front brakes,” Ted explained.
“It also means that because there is not so much energy going through the front wheels, these front tyres take longer to get up to working temperature.
“The very thing that makes the Red Bull so quick in the race makes it struggle in qualifying. And as Max Verstappen says, the fact the car comes alive after four laps into the Grand Prix kind of reminds him of a family estate car.
“The pattern is clear. The RB19 is a superb car, when it eventually gets going.”
McLaren to cause an upset?
McLaren have endured a hugely disappointing start to the season, with upgrades brought to their MCL60 in Azerbaijan appearing to have failed to make a significant impact.
However, Lando Norris has expressed confidence regarding the car’s performance in slow-speed corners, suggesting it’s a match for the Red Bull
What about Mercedes and Aston Martin?
Fernando Alonso, who has finished on the podium in four of the opening five events, fancies Aston Martin’s chances this weekend as well, even though McLaren and Ferrari have shown more performance in slower corners.
Interestingly, the AMR23 has also been slightly better than Red Bull in the slower stuff this year.
“So I would say that the slowest speeds of the championship, let’s say Monaco, Budapest, Singapore [is where we could win]. These kind of circuits, I think we put our main hopes at the moment.”
As for Mercedes, they were set to bring a new floor, new front suspension and new bodywork to Imola, but will instead use it for the first time in Monaco.
The upgrades intend to put Mercedes on the right development path, so it’s vital that they work, although Monaco may not be the best track to judge whether their efforts in Brackley have paid off.